For Africa, the global energy transition remains a paradox: abundant with mineral resources and renewable energy potential yet characterised by widespread energy poverty. This energy-sector bottleneck and resultant energy gap presents a critical threat to the continent’s economic development, prospective growth and its population’s livelihood – hindering economic growth, in GDP terms, by 2-4% annually.  

This year, the inaugural G20 Summit hosted on African soil yielded significant commitments to expedite the shift towards low-emission, climate-resilient development, including Mission 300, which aims to triple global renewable capacities and incorporate principles of equity and sustainable energy transitions. These commitments underscored Africa’s priorities, reflecting cautious optimism not only regarding an equity-based energy transition agenda but also concerning the broader state of multilateralism. Highlighted by increased asymmetric bilateral relations and the contestation of the fundamental value of international cooperation, the summit was conducted in the absence of the United States – a red flag for global climate governance. 

Less than a month prior, this fragmentation was also evident at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where significant divisions between fossil-fuel producers and nations vulnerable to climate change were on full display. Despite the United States’s absence at COP30, progress was made with the approval of the Belém Package, which includes a dedicated Just Transition mechanism that emphasises people, equity, and social justice in climate transition planning — a first in COP history. Albeit at a pace considerably slower than what is necessary, these ‘successes’ reflect positive collective progress, vital for African countries where the majority of populations still lack reliable energy access and are among the most vulnerable to climate change globally. Ultimately, the outcomes of both the G20 and COP30 need to serve as a foundation for advancing not only the “green transition” but also the “just transition”. As Africa navigates this mixed forecast of incremental wins and governance gaps, the pressing question becomes whether recent global commitments can translate into tangible progress for its just transition ambitions. 

Click here to read the full article, an output of the research project, Operationalising a Just Transition in Africa (OJTA).